Indian Oil Corporation’s (IOC) 9MFY19 standalone and consolidated EPS are down 33%-34% year-on-year hit by y-o-y lower GRM, decline in other income and rise in interest cost. Outlook for Q4FY19 is better due to super-normal auto fuel marketing margins, which would more than make up for weakness in GRM.
We estimate IOC’s FY19 and FY20 EPS to be down 23% y-o-y and 16% y-o-y, respectively. We are estimating IOC’s FY20E GRM at $5.1/bbl (flat y-o-y) and auto fuel net marketing margin at Rs 1/litre (down 46% y-o-y).
Outlook for FY20 would depend on 1) strength of government that assumes power after May 2019 elections which would determine auto fuel marketing margin outlook Read More
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