Indian Oil Corp rating ‘Hold’: Risk reduction, low valuations are positives


Indian Oil Corp rating ‘Hold’: Risk reduction, low valuations are positives

Q3 EBITDA at Rs 36 bn and PAT at Rs 7.2 bn came in much higher than Street expectations of net loss at both Ebitda and PAT levels, helped by FX gains and lower interest (-29% q-o-q/+29% y-o-y).

However, Ebitda is down 47% q-o-q/73% y-o-y and PAT down 78% q-o-q/91% y-o-y owing to steep inventory losses of `107.5 bn following 10% reduction in average crude price and 3% INR depreciation over the quarter.

OMCs have been increasing their marketing margins since late November, 2018 (auto-fuel margins now at >Rs 7/lt) after crude price spiraled down. We expect these to normalise towards levels of Rs 2.0-2.5/lt on annual basis.

GRMs have been trending weak currently on low light-distillate cracks but we expect them to recover Q2CY19 onwards as refiners gear up for IMO 2020 regulation. Read More

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