IOCL’s Q4FY19 net rose 8.5x q-o-q to Rs 61 bn but came 18% below JEFe on lower inv. gains. Core Ebitda, down 41% q-o-q, was in line but core earnings have now been flat for three years at `15/sh with little respite likely in FY20e too. With subsidy dues also likely to stay high and IOCL materially raising capex, debt — already at lifetime highs — may continue to rise too, driving down return ratios. We keep our Hold preferring ONGC, Gail & PLNG instead in India O&G.
IOCL’s Q4FY19 rose 8.5x q-o-q (+17% y-o-y) to `60.99 bn — 18% below JEFe on lower than est. inventory gains (`26.4 bn) even as fx gains (`8.7 bn) were higher. Higher dep. and lower other income were headwinds too while lower opex and tax rates helped. Read More
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