Uday Kotak is a rather worried man and I am just looking at his tweets. He has put up a table on the possible impact on GDP if oil goes up to $85 per barrel. He is saying macro headwinds are here even as micro is getting better. Would you agree with him?
Undoubtedly, Uday has been talking about macro situations deteriorating over a period of time whereas micro situation is improving. Every dollar of oil increase takes away $1.2 billion from our pocket. Oil prices which we were factoring at $40 to $60 average, has now moved into $60 to $80 range and certainly higher oil price has a negative impact on Indian economy.
As US interest rates start moving up, there could be an impact on flows into Indian market — either foreign direct investment or foreign portfolio investment — and that could have an impact on our investment scenario. Clearly, global interest rates as well as oil prices are negative for India. Read More
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